Quarterly Disaggregation of Annual GDP: A Comparative Study (in Japanese)

Abstract

This paper compares some methods of temporal disaggregation of annual GDP to quarterly series. The methods consist of Denton, ChowLin, Pro-Rata method, and others which are not using any indicators. Using some common metrics to measure accuracy, we show that the methods with indicators generally had better performances than those without indicators, with the exception of consumption. Also, we show that Denton method brings better and robust results, in contrast to the unstable results by Pro-Rata method.

Publication
大阪学院大学経済論集 The Osaka Gakuin review of economics